The analysis includes short-term technical analysis highlighting key trading opportunities across the entire base metals complex and market price forecasts extended to cover the full contract range being offered by the LME - three years forward for copper, aluminium, aluminium alloy, zinc, nickel, lead and tin.
It also features supply and demand balances expanded to include data for major regions.
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14 March 2012
Following recent price volatility within the base metal complex MBR decided to look into the link between the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and the most traded aluminium and copper three-month futures prices.
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06 March 2012
Copper physical ETF holdings rose substantially again last week, reaching new record highs that now represent more than 2% of LME stocks. Are the rival Blackrock and JP Morgan physical ETFs nearing US regulatory approval and launch?
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23 February 2012
Fears are growing that the aluminium financing deals game will come to an end, flooding the market with material, depressing prices, collapsing premiums and triggering supply cuts across the industry. But is this really going to happen? Metal Bulletin Research gives its considered view, which was published in Metal Bulletin today.
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More breaking views...
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15 May 2012
The metals have become sensitive to signs of a demand slowdown in China and mounting political uncertainty in Europe. Given this background, the most likely direction for prices is lower until there is an improvement in both the situation in Europe and the outlook for China, which might not be until Q3, or later.
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15 May 2012
Base metal assets under management (AUM) have fallen for five straight weeks. Uncertainty about
Greece’s fate could extend to mid-June, and investors are still net long in some markets, such as copper. So, there could be plenty of risk-off selling still to come.
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15 May 2012
Prices have extended to the downside and now last December’s lows are back in focus. As these levels are approached, the market should be ready for further production cutback announcements.
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15 May 2012
With prices falling, being short has been the correct trade in most markets of late. However, in some cases there are signs of getting oversold already, so a rebound or consolidation may occur before fresh shorting opportunities arise.
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15 May 2012
Despite tightness in the spread and falling LME stocks, copper at last seems to be experiencing a bit of a reality check. Technically, the move below $7,885/tonne now suggests prices may work down towards $7,500/tonne in the short term. However, there will be pent-up demand as prices fall, and bargain hunters will increasingly start to emerge as the risks subside, because copper’s bullish longer-term fundamentals remain intact.
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15 May 2012
Prices have fallen sharply. Given the economic backdrop and weaker auto sales in China that is not surprising. We would look for technical support in the mid-$1,900s/tonne.
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15 May 2012
There is still no sign of support for nickel prices from the Indonesian ore export ban, or indeed a force majeure at VNC that emerged last week. Prices have continued to drop and are now deeper into the area in which we would expect production cutbacks to be announced. We continue to expect prices to find support below $17,000/tonne.
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15 May 2012
Despite a strong medium to long term fundamental outlook, the current situation is not bullish and so tin prices continue fall along with the rest of the complex. We reiterate that the lows should be seen as buying opportunities.
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15 May 2012
Prices have started to fall. When there is selling across the board like this, the markets with the weakest fundamentals tend to be hardest hit. Arguably, zinc has the weakest fundamentals of all the base metals.
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15 May 2012
Demand indicators for the base metals market
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15 May 2012
Downloadable data for week May 15 2012