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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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November 2019 | Base Metals


Aluminium: Déjà vu


After a decent short-covering rally in late October and early November, we warned last week that LME aluminium prices had run into resistance and were threatening to turn lower once again, which would add another lower high to the sequence that has characterized trading all year. The sell-off of the past few days indeed confirms that latest lower high and allows aluminium bears to target the next lower low, which would be beneath October’s $1,705 per tonne nadir.

Focus back on lower lows...
After a decent short-covering rally in late October and early November, we warned last week that LME aluminium prices had run into resistance and were threatening to turn lower once again, which would add another lower high to the sequence that has characterized trading all year. The sell-off of the past few days indeed confirms that latest lower high and allows aluminium bears to target the next lower low, which would be beneath October’s $1,705 per tonne nadir.

The latest sharp deterioration in risk sentiment has the same cause as similar pull-backs seen in the past several months:...

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