Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

Change font size:   

May 2019 | Base Metals

Zinc: Price forecast downgrade may be required

The LME cash price has averaged $2,874 per tonne so far in Q2, which is more in line with our low case forecast scenario of $2,800 per tonne. We still maintain that the fundamentals are set to retighten across Q2-Q3, and a breakthrough in trade negotiations could trigger a strong price rebound. If this is not forthcoming soon, however, our forecast scenarios will need to be lowered.

Trade uncertainties weighing heavier on prices
Zinc prices are testing support below $2,600 per tonne at the start of this week after dropping by 4.6% across the past week. Resurgent uncertainty surrounding current US-China trade negotiations have triggered broad-based pressure across risk markets.

Tight spreads attracting more stocks to the LME

LME zinc stocks have continued to trend higher as tight spreads attract previous off-market inventory back on to warrant. A further 18,100 tonnes of zinc was delivered into LME warehouses across the past week, bringing the year-to-date total to 65,750 tonnes. At the same time, outflows remain modest; they have...


To read the rest of this analysis please take a free sample or subscribe

FREE Sample

Receive a free sample of  market analysis and price forecasts.

Free Sample


Receive unlimited access to all current and archive content going back to 2008 including downloadable pricing data and forecasts. Plus download the latest issue as soon as it’s published.


Already subscribed?