Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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May 2019 | Base Metals

Technical analysis: Selling may not yet be done

The base metals have already fallen far and – with the exception of aluminium and tin, which are demonstrating some base building – there could still be further downside to come basis the short-term technical picture.

The pullback in the LME aluminium price is fairly limited compared with its peers. This is because most of the selling momentum has run its course and the psychological price level at $1,800 per tonne continues to act as a strong magnet. We envisage the price continuing to trade near this level while the metal waits for the next catalyst to set its directional bias. The daily RSI and stochastic lines have started to flatline and both remain in bearish territory for now. With the declining 20 DMA fast approaching, we envisage any rebound to be capped here while dip-buying interest should continue should the price edge toward $1,800 per tonne.



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