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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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April 2019 | Base Metals


Copper: TC/RCs down, prices and premiums to rise


This week our copper analysis mostly focusses on TC/RCs, which have reached our forecast to go below the $70/7.0c level. They may have further to fall in Q2 if the Las Bambas disruption continues. As for prices and premiums in the refined market, our forecast remains for seasonal strength in Q2.

Higher premiums coming, but it has been a slow start to Q2 so far
It has been a slow start to Q2 on the demand front with no discernible pick-up in demand yet. While premiums are holding flat in the US, they have even been edging lower in Europe and Asia as cathode availability is comfortable and consumers appear to have little interest in the spot market. We think premiums will turn higher this quarter, especially in China and the US, as activity picks up, and even in Europe premiums cannot go much lower.

But while we wait for...

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