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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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March 2019 | Base Metals


Aluminium: Odd one out


Aluminium is the only base metal for which speculators trading the LME remain net short. This is a sign of aluminium-specific weakness, in particular concerns about rising availability of Chinese and Russian supplies. Overall, there seems to be little for the aluminium market to feel bullish about in the short term, which is reflected in its lackluster price action.

LME aluminium price down 1.8% week-on-week
The weekly average LME aluminium cash price was $1,852.6 per tonne last week, down 1.8% from the previous week's $1,887.6 per tonne, on the back of weaker Chinese trade data and continued strength in the dollar index. Aluminium continued to trade lower on Monday this week, although the dollar index has pulled back from multi-month highs due to the Friday's weaker than expected US employment report - total nonfarm payroll employment increased by only 20k in February, compared with the expectation of 180k.

According to the latest trade data reported by the China Customs, the country's exports fell 20.7%...

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