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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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March 2019 | Base Metals


Market Summary: Waiting for fresh catalysts


The market seems to have largely discounted a positive outcome of the ongoing US-China trade talks. The focus appears to be shifting more towards still-lacklustre Chinese economic data, which has clipped bulls’ wings somewhat and turned the January-February rallies into a consolidation phase. There is optimism that Beijing’s stimulus efforts will adequately support the economy and boost metal demand. Until there is a greater degree of confidence that this scenario will indeed play out, the base metals may remain range-bound rather than continue to push higher.

Waiting for fresh catalysts
The market seems to have largely discounted a positive outcome of the ongoing US-China trade talks. The focus appears to be shifting more towards still-lacklustre Chinese economic data, which has clipped bulls’ wings somewhat and turned the January-February rallies into a consolidation phase. There is optimism that Beijing’s stimulus efforts will adequately support the economy and boost metal demand. Until there is a greater degree of confidence that this scenario will indeed play out, the base metals may remain range-bound rather than continue to push higher.

Aluminium: Odd one out

Aluminium is the only base metal for which speculators trading the LME remain net short. This is a...

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