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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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February 2019 | Base Metals


Aluminium: In line with our forecast


LME aluminium cash prices averaged $1,846 per tonne in January as they edged away from their lows at the start of the year. The firmer tone has continued into February, which keeps the market in line with our Q1 average base-case forecast of $1,900 per tonne.

January price gain well below the base metal complex average
The base metals complex benefited from improving macro sentiment during January, edging away from the lows recorded at the start of the year. That said, not all metals have enjoyed a strong rebound, with aluminium showing limited gains of 2.9% when compared with the average gain of 7.9% for its peers.

Over the same period, total LME aluminium stocks have fallen by a net 14,500 tonnes. But the biggest movement comes from cancelled warrants, which almost doubled to 531,375 tonnes at the end of the month from 238,750...

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