Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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January 2019 | Base Metals

Aluminium: Looking for fresh direction

The LME aluminium price has been in an upward trend since the January 3 low, which is a positive development from a technical perspective at least. The increase in LME cancelled warrants recently has helped somewhat, but the removal of Rusal’s sanctions adds downward pressure even though it was already widely expected. US-China trade talks are the most likely source of fresh direction in the short term. Our Q1 price forecast remains at $1,900 per tonne, allowing for a little further upside if broad risk appetite continues its gradual improvement.

Eyeing US-China trade talks to provide fresh price direction
Aided by a weak dollar, the LME average aluminium cash price rose 2.5% to $1,861 per tonne last week, and has continued to edge higher this week, shrugging off a worsening Eurozone economic outlook and confirmation that US sanctions on Rusal have been lifted as of Monday.

Global risk sentiment is also re-focusing on US-China trade developments, given the high level meetings taking place in Washington on Wednesday and Thursday.

Premiums mostly flat-to-higher last week

Aluminium premiums were mostly flat-to-higher in the week ended Friday January...


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