Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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Aluminium: Weekly Market Tracker

Aluminium Market Tracker is a weekly report that provides in-depth analysis and forecasts for upstream and downstream aluminium markets.

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Your weekly 14 page report includes:

  • Market analysis and forecasts with two-year supply, demand and price forecasts.
  • Premiums: historical forecast of key regoinal primary aluminium premiums.
  • Analysis of regional production levels and consumption patterns.
  • Technical analysis of aluminium and aluminium alloy time series.
  • Coverage of alumina, secondary market, power, carbon products, fund activity and stock financing profitability.
  • Regional price, production and margin analysis and forecasts of all key aluminium extrusion and flat rolled products

Independent data including:

  • Extensive archive of global supply-demand balance data for primary aluminium and alumina with two-year forecast.
  • Global aluminium production and consumption by region, with two-year forecast and history from 1998.
  • 85 demand and market indicators and global alumina balance for China and rest of world with LME stocks, spot and forward LME prices and SHFE prices.
  • Regional trends in apparent consumption, trade and production of aluminium semis, going back to 2005 with one-year forecast.

All subscribers are eligible for regular individual consultations with the editor of the report.


Yang Cao

Yang is Metal Bulletin Research's Aluminium Analyst and sub-editor of the Aluminium Weekly Market Tracker. He performs in-depth market analysis and reviews of the global aluminium market, including price/balance forecasts.

Yang graduated with a Bachelor degree in Finance from the Central University for Nationalities in China during which time he completed internships at KPMG and Standard Chartered Bank. He then achieved a Masters degree in Economics and Finance from the University of York. After completing his studies Yang joined Metal Bulletin Research where he has given presentations at several influential industrial conferences. He is also studying for his Chartered Financial Analyst level III.

Market Brief

A light and durable metal that is easily rolled, extruded and recycled, aluminium is produced from bauxite via an intermediate product, alumina.

Four tonnes of bauxite yields approximately two tonnes of alumina, which in turn results in about one tonne of primary aluminium out of the smelter gate. Several other ingredients are needed, but energy is the main input and most of this is consumed as electricity at the smelting stage to convert alumina to metal. It is because of the significant energy needs that primary aluminium production has increasingly gravitated towards regions of low energy cost rather than to where the metal is most needed – for example Japan, a major aluminium consumer, today has negligible smelting capacity, whereas the Middle East has established itself as a major primary aluminium production centre over the past decade. With aluminium prices tending to trade around the marginal cost of production in recent years, higher cost smelters remain under pressure.

The global aluminium market has been in a supply surplus since 2007, but excess material has been stored in financing and rent deals in warehouses, effectively keeping availability tight and elevating premiums to record high levels. However, increased regulatory scrutiny of the warehouse industry in 2013 has put premiums on a downward trajectory.