Research

Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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Base Metals

3 December 2019 Issue

  • Markets expected to remain choppy while they wait for key decisions

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    10 December 2019

    Base metal markets have become more mixed this week and broader markets that have been seeing more risk-on are now consolidating while they wait for the UK’s general election, and its ramifications for Brexit, and for the US’s decision on whether to implement 15% tariffs on another $160 billion of Chinese imports.

  • Metals prices start the week mostly upbeat

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    09 December 2019

    A strong US employment report at the end of last week gave most markets something to be cheerful about and that has flowed through into Asian trading on Monday December 9.

  • Markets weaken as Trump prepared to wait for trade deal

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    04 December 2019

    Non-haven markets are generally under pressure again this morning after US President Donald Trump said he was prepared to wait until after the 2020 US presidential election for a trade deal with China.

  • Aluminium: Price struggling higher

    03 December 2019

    Despite the better-than-expected Chinese manufacturing PMI data, aluminium prices continue to struggle. Technically, a sustained break above the 100-day moving average may help to change the tone for the better.

  • Base metals investment analysis: Fund selling intensified in November

    03 December 2019

    Last week’s LME and CFTC COTR data showed that selling intensified across the base metals complex after mid-November as the macroeconomic backdrop deteriorated.

  • Copper: Rebound to continue in near term

    03 December 2019

    Copper prices have rebounded well since September, despite an unsupportive macro environment. We attribute the rebound to tighter fundamentals, which have mattered increasingly more in recent months. With copper’s speculative positioning remaining too stretched on the short side and a restocking phase likely to occur in the first quarter of next year, we continue to expect a strong short-covering rally in the months ahead.

  • Demand Indicators: 3 December 2019

    03 December 2019

    Demand indicators for the base metals market

  • Downloadable Base Metals Weekly Data December 3 2019

    03 December 2019

    Downloadable data for week December 3 2019

  • Lead: 73% of May-October rally undone

    03 December 2019

    Lead prices continued their retreat last week, falling to a low of $1,907.50 per tonne on Tuesday November 26. Prices have now fallen 15.8% from the October highs at $2,265 per tonne and have given back 73% of the May-October gains. Having broken support at $1,950 per tonne the next likely support area is around $1,860 per tonne. Given the funds are still net long, further long liquidation could push prices lower still

  • Market Summary: More of the same

    03 December 2019

    The underlying story defining sentiment in the base metals has not changed significantly, with a preliminary US-China trade deal apparently within reach, but in danger of being delayed, or worse, while other geopolitics unfold. Most base metals are largely oscillating sideways at best, or lower at worst, as the wait continues.

  • Nickel: Still room to work lower

    03 December 2019

    Nickel prices are now down 28% from September’s high and still have room to work lower in the short-to-medium term given weak demand, the poor macro backdrop, ample inventory held off-market, continuing exports from Indonesian for the time being, and bearish technical momentum. In a low case scenario, nickel could target base support from the uptrend line off the 2016 lows, which would mean around $12,000 per tonne.

  • Technical analysis: Mixed bag

    03 December 2019

    Selling is dominant in lead, nickel and zinc and threatens fresh lows, while the other three base metals are showing more bullish signs.

  • Tin: Firmer fundamentals to support prices

    03 December 2019

    LME tin traded sideways for most of November, having been the worst performer so far this year (-15%). But we continue to think that the price is undergoing a bottoming-out process, driven by tighter refined market conditions (proxied by falling visible inventories), in a regime in which the fundamentals have come to matter increasingly more in the price formation in recent months. We expect a steeper path for tin prices in the months ahead.

  • Zinc: Threatening fresh 2019 lows

    03 December 2019

    While zinc is starting to look oversold after its November pullback, our technical analysis warns that the prices still face downside risks. They may be destined to retest the September and year-to-date low at $2,190 per tonne, perhaps even going lower still judging by the large descending wedge-like pattern formed on the chart this year. The trend reflects the market searching for a new lower equilibrium in light of the end of the big annual deficits from 2020. There may be more counter-trend moves, but ultimately the sideways-to-lower drift will prevail.