Research

Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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Base Metals

26 November 2019 Issue

  • Markets cool after Trump tariffs pour cold water on sentiment

    Free

    03 December 2019

    While the metal markets have hardly been bullish, US President Donald Trump undermined confidence across broad markets when he re-imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from Argentina and Brazil and threatened France with tariffs too. This has raised concerns that a US-China trade deal may be delayed.

  • China’s manufacturing moves back into expansion mode – bodes well for metals

    Free

    02 December 2019

    The demand outlook for the metals has improved after newly released data showed that two of China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ indices were in expansion mode in November.

  • Metals give muted response to Trump’s support for Hong Kong protestors

    Free

    28 November 2019

    United States President Donald Trump’s signing of bills to support Hong Kong’s protestors may undermine or delay progress in US-China trade talks; this seems to have become a headwind for equities this morning, Thursday November 28, but so far, with the exception of nickel, it has not dragged down base metals prices.

  • Consolidating Tuesday’s gains; data-heavy day ahead of Thanksgiving may led to choppy trading

    Free

    27 November 2019

    Further positive signs of a phase one trade deal between the United States and China boosted sentiment across a broad selection of markets on Tuesday November 26, and that included most of the base metals, but so far today metal prices have generally been consolidating.

  • Aluminium: Looking for a short-term rebound

    26 November 2019

    Aluminium’s price action is demonstrating consolidation overall. And while it continues to trade above the uptrend line off October’s low of $1,705 per tonne, we envisage more short-term upside pressure will emerge, especially if a phase one trade deal between the US and China continues to edge closer. We do not rule out a retest of $1,800 per tonne in December.

  • Base metals investment analysis: Consolidating losses

    26 November 2019

    The base metals are in consolidation mode finding support that holds or stabilizing after recent, or less-recent, sell-offs.

  • Copper: Fundamentals set to reassert themselves

    26 November 2019

    The LME copper price has bottomed out since September and we think that the rebound should continue until at least Q1 2020. In the current regime, we find that the fundamentals matter more than macroeconomic factors when it comes to copper pricing. As such, we expect the excessively bearish speculative positioning on the Comex to normalize in the coming months, which should push copper prices firmly higher.

  • Demand Indicators: 26 November 2019

    26 November 2019

    Demand indicators for the base metals market

  • Downloadable Base Metals Weekly Data November 26 2019

    26 November 2019

    Downloadable data for week November 26 2019

  • Lead: Correction becomes consolidation

    26 November 2019

    Lead traded sideways last week as it consolidated two weeks of weakness that wiped 13.8% off its price since the May-October rally finally peaked. The LME price is still probing lower so far this week and is already below where it was at the start of the year. This is despite a meaningful supply deficit and low visible stocks. And there has been little price reaction to the latest supply disruption news from Glencore. The market may be distracted. We would let the sell-off run its course, but be looking for a buying opportunity.

  • Market Summary: Risk appetite should improve this week

    26 November 2019

    The latest reports about progress towards a US-China trade agreement suggest that a phase one deal is back on track. If history is a guide, interest in risk assets, including the base metals, should rebound while this remains the case. Equity markets have led the way so far.

  • Nickel: Sell-off might not be finished yet

    26 November 2019

    Nickel’s accelerated sell-off this month has found support at the 200-day moving average. The limited rebound so far is a sign that market participants are still wary about the short-term prospects for the moment, and indeed technical indicators warn that the downtrend could extend further yet.

  • Technical analysis: Consolidating losses

    26 November 2019

    The base metals are in consolidation mode finding support that holds or stabilizing after recent, or less-recent, sell-offs.

  • Tin: Price forecast lowered

    26 November 2019

    The bottoming-out process in tin prices since late August has proven to be deeper and more lengthy than initially expected, which is primarily owing to depressed sentiment on uncertainty regarding the effective implementation of refined production cuts. Consequently, we have marked to market our tin price forecasts. Still, we continue to argue that fundamentals are moving in the right direction and tin prices should move higher in the months ahead.

  • Zinc: Retesting support

    26 November 2019

    Zinc prices are attempting to form a base around $2,300 per tonne, where support was found previously from mid-September into early October. Next direction in the short term is likely to depend on how tightly off-market stocks are held and on progress of US-China trade talks.