Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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Base Metals

19 November 2019 Issue

  • Base metals remain mixed, path of least resistance sideways to lower


    26 November 2019

    While Wall Street climbs to record highs on optimism for a United States-China trade deal and on merger and acquisition developments, the metals at best tread water, while some head lower.

  • Base metals prices mixed, gold prices weaker as optimism for trade deal picks up


    25 November 2019

    Another wave of optimism regarding United States-China trade talks has boosted broader markets and weakened havens, but the base metals have not taken much notice.

  • Most base metals prices on back foot while direction of trade talks remains uncertain


    22 November 2019

    With confusing news over US-China trade talks, the markets are unsettled this morning, Friday November 22; the path of least resistance for the metals is to the downside, but with prices already weak, support is being encountered.

  • LME base metals prices mixed, risk sentiment weaker in line with increased trade tension


    21 November 2019

    Discouraging news from China over the “phase one” trade deal with the United States has led to less risk appetite, which for now is affecting the broader markets more than the metals, which were broadly firmer on Thursday November 21.

  • Aluminium: Déjà vu

    19 November 2019

    After a decent short-covering rally in late October and early November, we warned last week that LME aluminium prices had run into resistance and were threatening to turn lower once again, which would add another lower high to the sequence that has characterized trading all year. The sell-off of the past few days indeed confirms that latest lower high and allows aluminium bears to target the next lower low, which would be beneath October’s $1,705 per tonne nadir.

  • Base metals investment analysis: Fund selling is back, but how committed is it yet?

    19 November 2019

    While not evident yet in last week’s COT reports, open interest data suggests short selling is back as speculators respond to the latest setback in US-China trade talks.

  • Copper: Likely to move higher by year-end

    19 November 2019

    Despite the recent weakness in copper prices caused by weaker risk appetite, we expect copper’s fundamentals to continue to improve, which will result in firmer copper prices into year-end. With global visible copper inventories at their lowest since 2009, we argue that the upside risk for prices is building up. The forthcoming wave of short-covering could be significant in the months ahead.

  • Demand Indicators: 19 November 2019

    19 November 2019

    Demand indicators for the base metals market

  • Downloadable Base Metals Weekly Data November 19 2019

    19 November 2019

    Downloadable data for week November 19 2019

  • Lead: Oversold after 13% correction

    19 November 2019

    Lead prices fell each day last week, wiping over $100 per tonne off the price in the process. Monday this week was yet another down-day, with price now down 13.3% from the October 29 high of $2,265 per tonne. The imminent restart of the furnace at Port Pirie, combined with the forecast for a return to a supply surplus next year, are fuelling the bearishness. But selling has been overdone and prices are due a technical correction in the coming days and weeks.

  • Market Summary: Risk-on sentiment may return after corrections

    19 November 2019

    The base metals seem tired of the ‘on-again, off-again’ nature of a phase one US-China trade deal, with the optimism of recent weeks evaporating again, and prices sliding as a result. But risk-on sentiment is evident in equity markets and could spread back to the base metals.

  • Nickel: Getting oversold

    19 November 2019

    The break down through the base of what could have been a potential bull flag formation was technically significant for nickel prices last week and is a strong indication that sellers have the upper hand. Nickel prices are now undergoing deep technical consolidation, with the 200-day moving average the key focus in the short term as it is an area where bargain-hunting could emerge again.

  • Technical analysis: Attempting rebounds of support

    19 November 2019

    After selling off, the base metals are either still building support or starting to attempt rebounds having already confirming support.

  • Tin: Dichotomy

    19 November 2019

    We form the view that the recent weakness in tin prices is not fundamentally driven, but instead the result of momentum and technical selling. Although there is a striking dichotomy in the global tin market (looser on the LME, tighter on the SHFE), we argue that, on net, global refined market conditions have markedly tightened since H2-start. This should eventually lend support to tin prices and reverse the negative momentum.

  • Zinc: Ready to rebound

    19 November 2019

    Risk-on sentiment in global equity markets and the latest ILZSG data have so far failed to break the negativity in zinc that has seen prices sell off from their late-October highs. Continuing uncertainties over the US-China trade war, and the latest macro data from China, have overshadowed the more supportive themes. But now the overbought nature of zinc prices has been corrected and support has been found, we would not be surprised to see zinc prices turn higher again.