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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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February 2020 | Base Metals


Tin: Fragile stabilization


The LME tin price has experienced a fragile stabilization since the start of the month after a weak performance in January alongside the other base metals. While we concur that refined market conditions have softened this year, especially in China where destocking activity is taking place, we expect some short-covering in LME tin in the near term, providing macro fears over the coronavirus continue to abate and the dovish response from major central banks is maintained.

Stabilization
The LME tin price has stabilized since the start of February, alongside most of the base metals complex. Yet the stabilization process remains fragile for now. While macroeconomic uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus outbreak is elevated, a return to a calmer trading environment has emerged in recent days, as evident in the stabilization in the Chinese 10-year bond yield.

We expect a firmer LME tin price in the near term, with a Q1 forecast of $17,000 per tonne, compared with a quarter-to-date average of ~$16,900 per tonne.

Destocking activity so far this year

Like most other base metals...

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