Research

Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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January 2020 | Base Metals


Tin: Rebound likely to continue


The LME tin price has rebounded well after its noticeable sell-off on January 3, in line with our expectations. Although exchange inventories remain in an uptrend trend, thereby suggesting no signs of restocking from under-stocked downstream tin buyers, we believe that the rebound in tin prices will continue in the first quarter, underpinned by seasonal and macro factors.

Tin price recovery under way...
After a significant and unusual sell-off of 2.5% on January 3 (the deepest since mid-September 2019), tin has rebounded well, showing a 1% year-to-date gain. The tin price rebound comes despite higher inventories, with LME and SHFE stocks rising by roughly 700 tonnes last week – a fourth straight week of net inflows – suggesting no restocking activity from consumers yet.

...supported by strong seasonality

However, the LME tin price strength is consistent with its seasonal patterns. Over 2001-2019, the LME tin price averaged a gain of 8.5% in Q1, compared with a loss of 2.1%...

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