Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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January 2020 | Aluminium Weekly Market Tracker

Primary and Secondary

Analysis of consumption and production of primary aluminium, and an analysis of the market drivers of secondary aluminium and aluminium.

Demand Analysis:

The phase-one trade agreement should have limited impact on the aluminium industry
The United States and China signed a phase-one trade agreement last week, but the US aluminium market's reaction was subdued due to the President Donald Trump administration's failure to address the Section 232 tariffs.

While the US will maintain tariffs on Chinese goods for now, Trump revealed during a joint US-China press conference announcing the signing of the agreement that he intends to eliminate tariffs imposed outside the scope of Section 232, once phase two of the trade accord is completed. But there was no mention of the actual Section 232 tariffs, which currently force importers to pay an extra 10% to source aluminium from most overseas suppliers. That point is key for US aluminium market participants.

We believe there is no direct benefit to the aluminium industry from the phase-one agreement alone, although it can...


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