Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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January 2020 | Base Metals

Aluminium: 2020 price forecast raised

LME aluminium prices have been oscillating higher since their low for the year set in October at $1,705 per tonne. They even managed to end 2019 around $1,830 per tonne, ending the bearish year-long sequence of lower highs and lower lows. We consider this breakout to be technically significant. We expect aluminium prices to average an upwardly-revised $1,808 per tonne in 2020.

Aluminium price remains fairly resilient to geopolitical tensions
Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have set a risk-off backdrop to trading in January. Still, LME aluminium's price action remains fairly resilient. We believe this is due to nearby supportive micro-dynamics from the fresh buying among speculative investors and the high level of cancellations of available stocks, which should keep buyers interested in buying the dips.

Specs are warming to a brighter outlook

LME aluminium's net short fund position contracted to 17,548 lots in the week to December 27 following three consecutive weeks of buying pressure. Gross longs added 3,559 lots, which was reinforced by...


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