Research

Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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December 2019 | Aluminium Weekly Market Tracker


Primary and Secondary Fundamental Analysis


Analysis of consumption and production of primary aluminium, and an analysis of the market drivers of secondary aluminium and aluminium.

Demand Analysis:Sluggish demand in Brazil offset the impact of lower output According to Brazil Aluminium Association (ABAL) data, the country's total aluminium production in January-September 2019 was 468,300 tonnes, down 8.0% from the same period in 2018 – the year when the embargo at Norsk Hydro's Alunorte was enforced in April. Following the embargo, the company's Albras smelter was forced to run at 50% capacity, resulting in the country's aluminium production declining. The smelter is currently running at 90% capacity and is expected to reach full capacity during the first quarter of next year. According to Fastmarkets MB research's estimate, total aluminium production in Brazil should reach 646,000 tonnes in 2019, down 1.7% from 2018's level. But lower domestic output is not likely to create any shortages of metal, considering demand has been sluggish. In fact, we understand apart from the packaging and energy transmission sectors, all other major aluminium...

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