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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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December 2019 | Base Metals


Copper: Rally mode


Copper prices have surged to their highest since July, confirming that the rebound from September is likely to continue in the months ahead. Although the macro environment remains clouded by US-China trade uncertainty, we believe that copper prices are likely to continue to move higher in the months ahead due to improving fundamental dynamics. With visible inventories at their lowest since 2009, we hold that copper’s fundamental fair-value is much higher than its current spot level.

Copper breaks above $6,000 per tonne...
The LME copper price jumped by 2.2% on Friday, December 6, rising to its highest level since July at $6,027 per tonne. This was driven by fresh buying (and not short-covering), judging by the coincident rise in open interest. This points to increased bullish sentiment. The trigger was of macroeconomic nature, namely increased optimism regarding a partial US-China trade deal after constructive remarks from Larry Kudlow, director of the White House National Economic Council.

...as technical, macro and fundamental factors align

Other macro and fundamental factors have contributed to the rally in copper prices since...

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