Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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November 2019 | Base Metals

Copper: Likely to move higher by year-end

Despite the recent weakness in copper prices caused by weaker risk appetite, we expect copper’s fundamentals to continue to improve, which will result in firmer copper prices into year-end. With global visible copper inventories at their lowest since 2009, we argue that the upside risk for prices is building up. The forthcoming wave of short-covering could be significant in the months ahead.

Q4 2019 price forecast revised a bit lower...
The LME copper price has come under renewed downward pressure over the past week (albeit being relatively more resilient than the rest of the base metals complex), pushing its quarter-to-date average to $5,819 per tonne. Since the window is narrowing (we are already half way through the quarter), we have revised lower our Q4 2019 base case average target to $6,020 per tonne (from $6,080 per tonne previously).

...but we are still looking for short-covering rallies

But we continue to expect a solid rebound in the LME copper price, and our base case...


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