Research

Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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November 2019 | Base Metals


Tin: Expect a steeper recovery in the months ahead


We expect a steeper rebound in LME tin prices in the months ahead, principally because we think that refined market conditions should tighten more strongly as a result of ongoing refined production cuts and a rebound in refined tin consumption due to revival in the semiconductor sector. The notable increase in the SHFE/LME tin ratio and the abnormally low speculative positioning lead us to believe that a powerful rebound in prices is on the cards by year-end.

Recovery in tin prices
Tin is one of the best performers among LME base metals so far in Q4, up a little bit more than 5%. The rise in open interest in LME tin in the quarter to date suggests that the price strength has been primarily driven by fresh buying, a sign of increased optimism.

We attribute the recovery in tin prices to the market’s realization that refined output trends would be much tighter than initially projected following the September 5 official announcement of meaningful production cuts in the world’s two largest refined tin-producing countries, China and...

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