Research

Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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November 2019 | Base Metals


Nickel: Consolidation continuing


Although there is still a residual technical case for nickel’s Q3 price rally to be reignited this quarter, it looks increasingly unlikely. Instead, we stand by the view – which has been true so far – that post-peak consolidation will continue to dominate nickel for the remainder of Q4.

More lower highs and lows Approaching the mid-point of the fourth quarter, the LME nickel cash price is averaging $16,589 per tonne, with the average declining daily while trading remains in the down-sloping channel off September’s high. Indeed, the sequence of lower highs and lows defining that channel has been extended this week by the sell-off into the $15,000s again. While that lower low may leave prices due for a rebound within the channel to set the next lower high of the sequence, the latest sell-off has breached the 100-day moving average, which may see selling pressure intensify. Plenty to encourage further selling Either way, nickel prices are clearly trending lower, with...

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