Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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October 2019 | Aluminium Weekly Market Tracker

Primary and Secondary Fundamental Analysis

Analysis of consumption and production of primary aluminium, and an analysis of the market drivers of secondary aluminium and aluminium.

Demand Analysis:

Less demand from US, Europe to create aluminium surplus in 2020 - Hydro
Norsk Hydro believes the expectations of growth in aluminium demand are deteriorating, particularly in Europe and North America, and coupled with higher supply from China, the market is on course for a surplus in 2020. The Norwegian company estimated that production will outstrip demand by as much as 500,000 tonnes for the year, as the combined increase in output from China, Brazil and Canada will more than offset the expected growth in Chinese demand, while usage in the rest of the world will be flat in comparison with 2019. For 2019, the company had an estimate of a 1.0-1.5 million tonnes deficit.

The company also expects consumption of extruded products to fall strongly for the construction and transportation markets in North America during 2019 as a whole, and for the industrial and...


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