Research

Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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September 2019 | Base Metals


Tin: Price strength likely to resume


The tin price has come under renewed downward pressure since late last week, which we view as a healthy bout of profit-taking before higher highs are made. The fundamental backdrop of the global refined tin market is much tighter in H2 than in H1, mainly caused by the recent supply response from China. We therefore believe that the rebound in tin prices from their August low should continue in the coming months.

Tin prices under renewed downward pressure...
Tin prices have come under renewed downward pressure since September 11, after a solid rebound late in August and early in September. This has been driven by long liquidation judging the decrease in open interest.

Although the LME COT data shows that investment funds are still net long LME tin, this comes in sharp contradiction with the steep sell-off in tin prices in the first 8 months of the year (-17%). According to our CTA model, momentum-based traders have turned extremely bearish since the start of the year, moving from 47% long at...

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