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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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September 2019 | Base Metals


Market Summary: The tide may be turning


The negative effects of the drawn-out US-China trade war have weighed on base metal prices for a long time now, but signs that progress is being made again might be enough to instil some confidence if the oil market shock from the weekend’s incidents in Saudi Arabia proves short lived. A re-focussing on US-China trade optimism could lead to further rounds of speculative short-covering and in the physical market could trigger a switch from destocking to hand-to-mouth buying, or even some light restocking. This scenario has been our base case for Q4 2019 for a while, and we maintain this stance for now.

The tide may be turning
The negative effects of the drawn-out US-China trade war have weighed on base metal prices for a long time now, but signs that progress is being made again might be enough to instil some confidence if the oil market shock from the weekend’s incidents in Saudi Arabia proves short lived. A re-focussing on US-China trade optimism could lead to further rounds of speculative short-covering and in the physical market could trigger a switch from destocking to hand-to-mouth buying, or even some light restocking. This scenario has been our base case for Q4 2019 for a while, and we maintain this stance for now.

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