Research

Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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August 2019 | Aluminium Weekly Market Tracker


Primary and Secondary Fundamental Analysis


Analysis of consumption and production of primary aluminium, and an analysis of the market drivers of secondary aluminium and aluminium.

Demand Analysis:

Trade war between China and USA escalated
The ongoing trade conflict between China and the USA exacerbated last Friday following the US President Donald Trump announced an additional 5% tariff on $550 billion worth of Chinese goods, in retaliation for China's decision to hike trade tariffs on $75 billion of US products. We believe the move will further deepen the threat of an all-out trade war that many fear could bring global economies into recession, which in turn would translate into lower demand for industrial metals, including aluminium.

According to Trump, US tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese imports will increase from 25% to 30% on October 1, and an additional $300 billion worth of Chinese goods will be taxed at 15%, up from previous 10%, starting on September 1. The increase in tariffs means the US has virtually hiked taxes on all China-origin goods.

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