Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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July 2019 | Aluminium Weekly Market Tracker

Buying pressure deterred by steady dollar: Market Summary and Analysis

We believe this lacklustre price performance can be attributed to the expectation of a lower average alumina price in H2, rising global aluminium supply and a sluggish demand outlook.

Buying pressure deterred by steady dollar The forecast-beating US non-farm payrolls reading for June of 224,000 - well above the estimated 160,000 - raised major questions about the certainty of an interest-rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. The dollar index enjoyed a sizeable rally on Friday, peaking at 97.45, while the London Metal Exchange base metals prices came under renewed selling pressure and closed on a negative note apart from nickel. The dollar index remains firm at 97.22 at the start of this week; the buying pressure in LME aluminium looks subdued at the time of writing, up a mere 0.2% and trading just above the psychological price level of $1,800 per tonne. Continued decline in aluminium stocks didn’t translate into price increase But the continued shrinkage in in global visible aluminium stocks is providing mild support. SHFE stocks at 421,712 tonnes in the week to July 5 are...


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