Research

Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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June 2019 | Aluminium Weekly Market Tracker


Primary and Secondary Fundamental Analysis


Analysis of consumption and production of primary aluminium, and an analysis of the market drivers of secondary aluminium and aluminium.

Demand Analysis:

The normalization of US premium has still not occurred following the removal of Section 232 tariffs on Canada and Mexico

President Trump announced in May that the United States had reached an agreement to remove Section232 tariffs on products imported from Canada and Mexico. At that time we stated our belief that following the removal US Midwest premiums would drop from their elevated levels. Prior to the implementation of the 232 tariff, the US Midwest premium was trading at a around $175 per tonne but post the tariff, it skyrocketed to almost $500 per tonne (22.5 cents per lb) in April 2018 and has since traded above $400 per tonne. The latest assessment of the Midwest premium was $18.5-19 per lb ($407.85-418.87 per tonne) on Friday Jun 14, unchanged since May 21, when the premium declined for the first time following the removal of Section 232 tariffs on...

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