Research

Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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June 2019 | Aluminium Weekly Market Tracker


Primary and Secondary


Analysis of consumption and production of primary aluminium, and an analysis of the market drivers of secondary aluminium and aluminium.

Demand Analysis:

Hot summer season may deter aluminium demand in China in Q3
As the traditionally strong second quarter is approaching its end, there are fears that the hot summer weather will deter construction activities and other labour-intensive activities. The resultant softer tone to aluminium demand could pressure aluminium prices lower in Q3.

SHFE aluminium prices have performed strongly since March, mainly due to the decrease in SHFE aluminium inventory. From the chart on the left, we can see that SHFE aluminium inventory dropped from 747,012 tonnes on March 1 to 507,353 tonnes on May 31, a decline of 32.1%, while during the same time period, aluminium traded on SHFE had increased 4.1% to Rmb 14,160 per tonne ($2,043 per tonne).

But we are seeing some ominous signs that may add some downward pressure to the aluminium price. One of the signs is...

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