Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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May 2019 | Aluminium Weekly Market Tracker

Primary and Secondary Fundamental Analysis

Analysis of consumption and production of primary aluminium, and an analysis of the market drivers of secondary aluminium and aluminium.

Demand Analysis:

Trade war dampens China's aluminium demand
The most important development that is drawing attention in the global economy is arguably trade tensions between the USA and China, and this has been putting pressure on aluminium demand in the largest aluminium consumer in the world. According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, domestic demand for aluminium has been undermined by the ongoing blows to Chinese consumers' confidence, which have been brought about by the trade tensions between the US and China.

The most likely reason for declining production and increasing exports is weakening demand

Since the second half of 2018, China's exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products have been increasing with strong y-o-y growth rates. In fact, the country's aluminium exports increased at 20.8% y-o-y in March, leading to a full Q1 increase of 13.6% from the same time period last year. This has taken place...


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