Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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February 2019 | Aluminium Weekly Market Tracker

Primary and Secondary Fundamental Analysis

Analysis of consumption and production of primary aluminium, and an analysis of the market drivers of secondary aluminium and aluminium.

Demand Analysis:

China’s aluminium export registered a record high in January 2019...
According to data from China Customs released last Thursday, the country’s exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products totaled 552,000 tonnes in January 2019, up 24.0% y-o-y and 6.2% m-o-m. Total volumes exported in January represented a new high, exceeding the previous high-water mark of 542,700 tonnes recorded in December 2014.

Since June 2018, China has been exporting at least half a million tonnes each month, with the only exclusion being October, when the export was 482,000 tonnes. We believe there are two reasons behind the record high January exports. Even though the US has imposed import tariffs on aluminium, the two countries’ governments continue to conduct trade talks to urge China to solve the overcapacity issue. Firstly, we believe the fact that the US has previously set a deadline...


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