Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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October 2018 | Aluminium Weekly Market Tracker

Primary and Secondary Fundamental Analysis

Analysis of consumption and production of primary aluminium, and an analysis of the market drivers of secondary aluminium and aluminium.

Demand Analysis:

Hydro expects a larger-than-expected market deficit for aluminium in 2018
Last week Norsk Hydro stated its view that the global primary aluminium market is moving towards deficit in 2018, driven by slower-than-expected supply growth. The company expects ex-China production to increase by 1-2% in 2018, and Chinese production to decline by around 0-1% in 2018, a sharp drop from growth of 13% in 2017.

Hydro’s production forecast for China and rest of the world is in line with Fastmarkets MB research’s estimate. Currently, we are expecting global total aluminium production to be 64.25 million tonnes in 2018, up 0.9% from 2017’s level, with Chinese production only up marginally (0.2% up) to 36.45 million tonnes from 2017’s 36.39 million tonnes. For ex-China, we are estimating the production to be 27.80 million tonnes in 2018, up 2.0% from 27.26 million tonnes in 2017. ...


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