Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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September 2018 | Aluminium Weekly Market Tracker

Primary and Secondary Fundamental Analysis

Analysis of consumption and production of primary aluminium, and an analysis of the market drivers of secondary aluminium and aluminium.

Demand Analysis

European aluminium premiums for 2019 are stagnating
European aluminium premiums for 2019 are stagnating around spot-market levels due to the continuing uncertainty about whether US sanctions on Russian producer UC Rusal will be lifted by late October, MBR learned at the recent International Aluminium Conference in Berlin.

MBR’s own view of the premium trend next year is that the bullish market fundamentals should be positive for aluminium premiums – we believe demand should remain healthy and will continue to expand. In our base case scenario, we have factored in the Rusal sanctions are not lifted for the first half of the year and we believe the global aluminium market will see a deficit of more than one million tonnes for 2019.

In our communication with the conference attendees and other speakers, we understand other market participants also expect higher premiums on a long-term basis, with buyers...


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