Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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September 2018 | Base Metals

Aluminium: Range-bound

Aluminium prices continue to consolidate while the negative macro environment dominates. This is capping the upside for prices. But in view of the ongoing supply-side uncertainties, including the looming winter heating season in China, the downside price risks are limited. That leaves aluminium with nowhere to go but sideways in the short-to-medium term.

Prices capped by trade tensions, supported by supply uncertainties
Stronger-than-forecast Chinese trade data released over the weekend, together with positive inflation figures, suggests the economy has shrugged off rising trade uncertainties so far. However, tensions appear set to escalate further after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on a further $267 billion of Chinese goods, atop the $200 billion imports already in consideration. While this is keeping a cap on the upside for prices, the downside is protected by continuing supply-side uncertainties.

Overall, the weekly average LME aluminium cash price was $2,046 per tonne last week, down 3.1% from the previous week’s $2,110.75 per tonne.

LME and SHFE stocks edged...


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