Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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September 2018 | Aluminium Weekly Market Tracker

Primary and Secondary Fundamental Analysis

Analysis of consumption and production of primary aluminium, and an analysis of the market drivers of secondary aluminium and aluminium.

Demand Analysis

European aluminium premiums likely to rise on Rusal fears
As the deadline for US companies to wind up deals with Rusal is fast approaching, and with no indication that the US government will lift its sanctions, we believe premiums are likely to jump in coming weeks. The sanctions against Rusal were imposed on April 6 for reasons which included Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula. And they were expected to be removed in August, two months before the US government’s deadline for companies to wind down their contracts with the producer. But now with little more than one month to go before the October 23rd deadline, and no sign of sanctions ending, we believe European premiums ae likely to rise as buyers are starting a scramble to secure metal in an already-tight market for the rest of 2018 and into 2019.



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