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Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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May 2018 | Aluminium Weekly Market Tracker


Primary and Secondary Fundamental Analysis


Analysis of consumption and production of primary aluminium, and an analysis of the market drivers of secondary aluminium and aluminium

Demand AnalysisArbitrage widens for third consecutive month on Rusal sanctions pushing premiums higher Concern in the market surrounding recent sanctions against Rusal pushed the Midwest premium higher this month, thereby widening the aluminium import arbitrage between Asia and the United States. The differential between cancelling aluminium from LME warehouses in Asia and shipping the material into the US Midwest increased for the third month in a row. The estimated arbitrage for material from Singapore, Busan, Johor and Port Klang shipped to the US Midwest was at their widest since June 2017. For material originating from warehouses in Singapore, the estimated arbitrage was at $317.75 per tonne in April for shipments of 10,000 tonnes (via break bulk shipments), a significant increase from $256.96 per tonne the month before. The widening arbitrage has been driven by the sharp rise in US Midwest premiums. Metal Bulletin’s assessment of the US Midwest delivered premium...

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