Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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April 2018 | Aluminium Weekly Market Tracker

Primary and Secondary Fundamental Analysis

Analysis of consumption and production of primary aluminium, and an analysis of the market drivers of secondary aluminium and aluminium.

Demand Analysis:

Alcoa predicts a global deficit of 600,000 to one million tonnes, in line with MBR’s forecast

Alcoa announced its Q1 financial results last week with the company’s Q1 net income reaching $150 million, or 80 cents a share, on sales of $3.1 billion, up from $2.7 billion last year. Alcoa said that delays in smelter projects in China, which is engaged in back-and-forth tariff threats with the U.S. that includes threatened levies on Chinese aluminium, will increase the scale of deficit in both the aluminium and alumina markets this year. The company predicts a deficit of 600,000-1,000,000 tonnes for the global aluminium market, revising its previous forecast of 300,000-700,000 tonnes last quarter. This is in line with MBR’s estimate of a 530,000 tonnes deficit for the global aluminium market. Alcoa also predicts a deficit of up to 1.1 million tonnes for alumina, after predicting a...


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