Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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March 2018 | Aluminium Weekly Market Tracker

Primary and Secondary Fundamental Analysis

Analysis of consumption and production of primary aluminium, and an analysis of the market drivers of secondary aluminium and aluminium.

Demand Analysis:

The impact of the 10% aluminium tariff signed into law by President Donald Trump last week is already being felt on prices, premiums and trade flows worldwide.

North America
The US Midwest aluminium premium has been trending higher since the start of this year, registering 10 consecutive week-on-week increases. Last week alone, it spiked by 2 cents per lb or 11.8% from 16.5-17.5 cents/lb to 18.5-19.5 cents/lb, after Trump signed the tariffs into law with a presidential proclamation on Thursday March 8th.

While we believe there is further upside potential for US Midwest premium, we also believe that the scale of this increase is capped. We are still awaiting more details as to how the tariffs will be implemented, and how exporters can apply for exemptions, but what is certain for now is Canada, Mexico and Australia will be granted exemption...


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