Research

Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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February 2018 | Aluminium Weekly Market Tracker


Primary and Secondary Fundamental Analysis


Analysis of consumption and production of primary aluminium, and an analysis of the market drivers of secondary aluminium and aluminium.

Demand Analysis

Tariffs and quotas to cause the US Midwest premium to disconnect from the rest of the world
Europe might find itself the destination of choice for metal that would have otherwise entered the US, if Trump’s Section 232 decision leads to tariffs that create a barrier to entry by making the US market too cost prohibitive. Producers in countries that have been favoring the US for its higher premiums - Russia and the Middle East specifically, which constituted 33.3% of US total imports of unwrought aluminium in 2017 - would probably opt to redirect their metal to Europe if the US were to institute either a blanket tariff on imports or a mix of tariffs and quotas.

In particular, we believe if the second recommendation is chosen by the president – i.e. 23.6% tariff on shipments from selected nations, including Russia, China, Vietnam, Hong Kong and Venezuela...

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