Research

Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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February 2018 | Aluminium Weekly Market Tracker


Primary and Secondary Fundamental Analysis


Analysis of consumption and production of primary aluminium, and an analysis of the market drivers of secondary aluminium and aluminium

Demand Analysis

MBR has done a review of historical and forecast demand numbers
We have recently done a complete review of our historical and forecast aluminium demand numbers which is now shown in our supply/demand balance. Now we are forecasting a global total demand of 66.44 million tonnes in 2018, up 4.7% from 2017’s level, lower than 2017’s y-o-y growth rate of 5.7%. Chinese demand is expected to be 36.56 million tonnes, up 5.9%, the slowest growth rate since 2008.

Our updated supply/demand balance showed global aluminium market will be in a deficit of 777k tonnes in 2018, as the record high deficit of 1.89 million tonnes for ROW can only be partially offset by China’s surplus of 1.1 million tonnes – this is mainly due to the much slower growth in Chinese aluminium production in 2018. We expect Chinese...

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