Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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January 2018 | Aluminium Weekly Market Tracker

Primary and Secondary Fundamental Analysis

Analysis of consumption and production of primary aluminium, and an analysis of the market drivers of secondary aluminium and aluminium.

Demand Analysis

No let off in SHFE stock build
We have been waiting to see some signs of a drawdown in SHFE aluminium stocks to give a hint at the fact that Chinese markets are balancing out. But this development remains elusive. In fact stocks continue to build, up another 29.6kt over the first three weeks of January. In last week’s report we discussed the fact that several Chinese semis-fabricators were planning to extend closure periods over the impending Chinese New Year holiday period, with falling orders being cited as one of the reasons for this (along with rising costs and falling profits).

Bumpy start to 2018 demand

All things considered, circumstantial evidence seems to be pointing to a bumpy start to Chinese aluminium demand this year, after the surprisingly strong performance witnessed in 2017. Our greatest concerns for this year are centred on the country’s real...


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