Research

Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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January 2018 | Aluminium Weekly Market Tracker


Primary and Secondary Fundamental Analysis


Analysis of consumption and production of primary aluminium, and an analysis of the market drivers of secondary aluminium and aluminium

Demand Analysis

What is in store for 2018 and beyond?
2017 has now come to an end, and we continue to estimate that demand estimate of 5.1% (to 63m tonnes, up from 62.9mt previously) in aluminium usage, well below the 6.7% average for the 2011-2016 period. But what can we expect from 2018 and beyond? Will growth rates bounce back, or will they continue to moderate?

China holds the key

Of course the answer to this question lies almost entirely in expectations for Chinese usage over the period. If we strip out Chinese aluminium demand, RoW usage increased by an average of just 2.6% over the 2011 to 2016 period, putting the estimate of 3.2% growth in 2017 at above trend. We expect to see another year of above trend growth ex-China at 3.3%. But Chinese usage of primary aluminium accounted for 53% of global aluminium usage...

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