The analysis includes short-term technical analysis highlighting key trading opportunities across the entire base metals complex and market price forecasts extended to cover the full contract range being offered by the LME - three years forward for copper, aluminium, aluminium alloy, zinc, nickel, lead and tin.
It also features supply and demand balances expanded to include data for major regions.
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30 January 2012
In the latest MB Apex leader board for base metal price forecasts in Q4 2011, MBR was ranked second again in copper out of 22 analysts, with an accuracy of 98.5%.
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16 January 2012
We are not being lulled into a false sense of security by the strong copper prices over the past week. There is a case for seeing prices at much lower levels – even deep beneath $6,000/tonne – before things get better.
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11 January 2012
The following article featuring our view on supply indiscipline in the zinc market was published in Metal Bulletin today.
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More breaking views...
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31 January 2012
The base metals continued to rally last week, with gains from the mid-December lows reaching more than 30% in some markets. However, although surging cancelled warrants appear to be offering continuing support, prices have pulled back to consolidate now. We expect consolidation to be followed by fresh weakness.
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31 January 2012
A January price rally like the one we have seen this year is not uncommon, on the back of new year fund allocation being released and commodity index reweightings. The question is whether the speculative gains of the past month will stick. We doubt it.
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31 January 2012
The rally has halted for now and prices are slipping. Alloy prices are holding up well, but for both alloy and primary we think prices will be heading lower again before long, as we expect the economic background to remain bearish.
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31 January 2012
The rallies have finally encountered resistance. Most metals turned lower on Monday, which was enough to turn the RSI and stochastics lower too. This may finally be our signal to job the short side.
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31 January 2012
The fall in LME stocks continues to provide some support for copper prices, but the fact that China did not take up the baton on its return from holiday on Monday is potentially a rally-stopping development. We wait to see if China emerges as a buyer in the coming days and weeks, but our view is that for China, and for investors, the current price level does not represent a good entry point given how far it has run in January and the risks still clouding the macro outlook. We reiterate that prices are due for a retreat back below $8,000/tonne.
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31 January 2012
Prices extended their gains, but are now consolidating. It seems as though the market in general got a bit too bearish in the second half of 2011 and that once prices had built a base at the lows, there was some room to adjust on the upside as stale shorts were covered. The question now is whether there is the appetite for follow-through buying.
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31 January 2012
Prices have rallied strongly and so far are holding up well. However, supply is surging, demand is fragile and stocks are climbing. On this basis, we feel the scale of this rebound is ill-founded, though the strength of the January has forced an upgrade to our price forecasts this week.
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31 January 2012
This market has been the strongest performer of the all the base metals since the December lows. Falling stocks have helped, and so too has a favourable arbitrage for Chinese importers. However, we would be wary of chasing prices higher, especially with the demand outlook vulnerable and with Indonesia shipping its backlog. We expect prices to consolidate at lower levels now, but our forecasts have required an upgrade this week after such a strong start to the year.
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31 January 2012
Similar to the case in nickel, we have raised our forecasts this week to account for the stronger-than-expected rally in January, but the zinc market is oversupplied and the macro outlook is weak and uncertain. Against this backdrop, the run up in prices is hard to justify. We expect prices to drift lower until production cutbacks are announced or the demand outlook improves significantly.
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31 January 2012
Demand indicators for the base metals market
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31 January 2012
Downloadable data for week January 31 2012