Research

Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

Change font size:   

Base Metals

22 January 2019 Issue

  • Prices work higher in absence of negative news

    Free

    25 January 2019

    LME base metals were up across the board by an average of 0.4% this morning, this despite Thursday’s generally weak flash manufacturing PMI data in Asia and Europe, although the US showed a stronger number.

  • Generally weaker this morning, but underlying trends edging higher

    Free

    24 January 2019

    The base metals are taking it in turns to edge higher, but overhead resistance is frequently encountered and that is causing a stop-start upward movement. The overall picture therefore is quietly bullish and we wait to see if less liquidity over the Lunar New Year holidays in early February leads to a faster move higher, or whether it prompts more volatility.

  • Metals prices consolidate while awaiting fresh direction

    Free

    23 January 2019

    Base metals prices had dipped in recent days on the back of renewed global growth concerns and after follow-through buying from last week waned. But the complex is broadly up again this morning, with average gains of 0.3%.

  • Aluminium: Half-hearted price recovery

    22 January 2019

    We see cost-related support for aluminium prices around $1,800 per tonne, and this market is also garnering some support from the generally more optimistic macro mood. But the technical and short-term fundamental situation for aluminium suggests prices will struggle to keep up with the recoveries that the fundamentally-tighter metals seem capable of. Our Q1 base case forecast stays at $1,900 per tonne.

  • Base metals investment analysis: Speculators raised shorts early this month, but likely to have covered since

    22 January 2019

    LME data shows that fund managers started the year maintaining a bearish stance on copper, aluminium, lead and zinc, and were even net short the first three. We suspect the particularly underweight positioning here has provided the ammunition for short-covering rallies since then.

  • Copper: Price strength will continue

    22 January 2019

    Copper has experienced a short-covering rebound since the start of the year, which is primarily owing to the positive turn in Chinese macro sentiment. Prices have improved despite copper’s fundamental indicators not yet strengthening. When they do, we would expect market participants jump back on the long side with more conviction. So we see further strength in copper prices throughout Q1 due to friendlier macro sentiment, and a steeper appreciation in Q2 due to improving seasonal demand.

  • Demand Indicators: January 23 2019

    22 January 2019

    Demand indicators for the base metals market

  • Downloadable Base Metals Weekly Data January 23 2019

    22 January 2019

    Downloadable data for week January 23 2019

  • Lead: Range bound, but not for much longer

    22 January 2019

    Lead prices spent most of last week in a tight range, largely ignoring strength seen in the rest of the base metals complex. This activity reminds us of a coiled spring, in the sense that lead is trying to go higher, but is being held back. The tight fundamentals can support a stronger lead price in our view and we expect a break higher soon.

  • Market Summary: Encouraging signs continue

    22 January 2019

    There was further upward progress for base metal prices last week and the more upbeat tone has continued into this week. The market has become optimistic on the outlook for the US/China trade situation and that could drive prices further in the short term, especially while liquidity reduces as we approach the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, which begins on February 4. In addition, a pick-up in both Chinese industrial production and retail sales, as well as oil prices, is also encouraging

  • Nickel: Taking a breather

    22 January 2019

    Nickel has been the top-performing base metal so far this year as speculative and physical buyers have been active. The market seems to be taking a break to consolidate now. Based on the fundamentals, we think the upside remains favoured overall for 2019. But, as is typical of nickel, we should expect plenty of volatility too.

  • Technical analysis: Consolidation required after recent gains

    22 January 2019

    The base metals that have enjoyed strong run-ups, such as tin and nickel, have started to show signs of bullish exhaustion and are in need of consolidation. Elsewhere, the charts look more constructive and bases seem to be in place.

  • Tin: Higher price warranted

    22 January 2019

    Tin has delivered a solid performance since the start of 2019, primarily driven by strengthening supply side fundamentals and reinforced by the broader improvement in Chinese macro sentiment. While tin prices could prove more volatile in the short term due to overbought technical conditions now, we think that the current tightness in the refined tin market is genuine warrants a stronger price in near term to ration demand or stimulate supply.

  • Zinc: Positive developments

    22 January 2019

    The continued drawdown of LME stocks reinforces the view that persistent structural tightness in the zinc market has not passed yet. Indeed, we are still looking for a fourth consecutive annual deficit this year. The technical set-up has turned more constructive, but stronger prices are coinciding with tightening longer-dated spreads again. This suggests a pick-up in producer hedge selling, which will weigh on efforts to regain $2,700 per tonne.