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09 May 2012
Demand indicators for the base metals market
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09 May 2012
Downloadable data for week May 9 2012
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09 May 2012
Market sentiment is in danger of spiralling lower, and the chances of a significant sell-off have increased markedly in recent weeks. Those metals with the weakest fundamentals are likely to come off worst, but tightness in copper should see dips well supported.
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09 May 2012
Prices have been holding up surprisingly well, but are due a reality check. The broader markets look vulnerable and if sentiment continues to deteriorate zinc may suffer more than some of the other metals as it has among the worst fundamentals.
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09 May 2012
The rebounds from two weeks ago faltered last week and prices are now back testing support. The outlook for demand remains depressed and the political changes in Europe are understandably souring sentiment again, and undermining the euro too. The downside has to be favoured in this environment, until production cutbacks are made.
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09 May 2012
The fundamental bottom line for tin is that while demand is patchy, supply remains constrained. Although LME stocks have been increasing, they are still close to what would be considered a critically low level. However, despite strong fundamentals, tin prices continue to oscillate lower, weighed down by bigger issues. When the fundamentals reassert themselves, tin prices have some catching up to do on the upside, so the lows now and in the coming weeks are buying opportunities.
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09 May 2012
The toll that renewed European uncertainties are taking on the euro and investors’ risk appetite against an already very sluggish demand backdrop is likely to keep pressuring prices lower in the near term, despite falling LME stocks and the continuing backwardation. However, given the tightness in copper, we would not be surprised to see price dips well supported.
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09 May 2012
The European debt crisis looms large again following the results of the French and Greek elections at the weekend. In terms of risk appetite, they delivered a worst case scenario, with a return to political bickering and a messy default for Greece suddenly much more likely than it was a few weeks ago.
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09 May 2012
Attempts to rally recently have faded, prices have turned lower, and downward momentum is building up in line with plunging technical indicators. We were already short in many markets and we will hold that stance.
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09 May 2012
The Indonesian ore export ban and tax are now in effect, but details are still sketchy and it will take time to judge the impact on Chinese NPI output. We are not expecting big repercussions in the short term, and nor is the market given how prices continue to slide. They look vulnerable to further weakness, but we expect good underlying support to emerge too.
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09 May 2012
The fact that lead prices have corrected lower, even with the run-up in cancelled warrants suggests the market is not overly worried about supply. The LME’s action to delist Vlissingen as a good delivery point for copper may have far reaching implications for other metals, including lead.