Research

Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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Base Metals

10 September 2019 Issue

  • Metals lose support while higher oil prices cloud outlook

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    17 September 2019

    Higher oil prices are not going to do the manufacturing sector any favors, other than in parts of the oil industry itself, and that seems to be being reflected in the base metal markets where prices are under pressure again this morning, Tuesday September 17.

  • Poor Chinese economic data, sharply higher oil prices drag LME base metal prices lower

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    16 September 2019

    Over the past week the metals have looked stronger and some dovish comments by US President Donald Trump over US-China trade relations seem to have provided a slight confidence boost, but headwinds are being felt this morning, Monday September 16.

  • Aluminium: Limited upside potential

    10 September 2019

    We believe recent price action suggests the downswing driven by selling momentum since the mid-August high has run its course. But aluminium prices have their work cut out to break the longer-term downtrend, particularly as capacity restarts at various smelters in China and pressure from the global macroeconomic situation threaten the fundamental outlook.

  • Base metals investment analysis: Copper potentially being set up for an almighty rally

    10 September 2019

    We continue to argue that speculative positioning in copper is excessively bearish, preserving the likelihood of a powerful short-covering price rally at some point in the future, and likely by year-end.

  • Copper: Short-covering kicks in

    10 September 2019

    Copper prices have enjoyed a short-covering rebound since the start of September, driven by positive macro and fundamental factors at play. Given the excessively negative copper positioning among the speculative community, we see plenty of room for further short-covering in the months ahead, especially if fundamental indicators continue to move in the right direction.

  • Demand Indicators: 10 September 2019

    10 September 2019

    Demand indicators for the base metals market

  • Downloadable Base Metals Weekly Data September 10 2019

    10 September 2019

    Downloadable data for week September 10 2019

  • Lead: $2,100 per tonne resistance strikes again

    10 September 2019

    After a show of strength from May to July, lead prices have turned sideways and have repeatedly been capped by resistance above $2,100 per tonne. Given weakness in the auto market and across most of the other base metals, lead has done well to have been so resilient. We put that down to the supply disruptions at Port Pirie. A stronger tone generally last week, combined with a series of higher lows on the lead price chart, bodes well for the weeks ahead.

  • Market Summary: Chinese risk appetite improving

    10 September 2019

    Despite the trade stand-off with the US and the deteriorating economic data, the Chinese government’s plans to provide more support for its economy is constructive. For base metals prices, it should, at worst, be a supportive factor in the coming few months and, at best, drive them higher.

  • Nickel: Treading water

    10 September 2019

    Nickel is consolidating around $18,000 per tonne, but with a great deal of the bullish catalysts that supported the strong rally already priced in, we maintain our view that prices are only treading water ahead of a much-needed technical correction in the coming weeks.

  • Technical analysis: Testing resistance

    10 September 2019

    After decent rallies for most base metals last week, prices are testing overhead resistance levels looking for further gains if buying momentum can be maintained.

  • Tin: Embrace volatility

    10 September 2019

    The sharp rally in tin prices has been mainly triggered by the announcement of meaningful production cuts in China, although we contend that the move has been exacerbated by technical factors due to poor liquidity conditions inherent to the tin market. Fundamentally, we are of the view that a firmer tin price is warranted in H2. Volatility is likely to move higher still in the near term.

  • Zinc: Price rebound pauses

    10 September 2019

    Fundamentally, there seems little to be overly bullish about on the demand side and supply is recovering steadily. That said, we believe that zinc is oversold and any bullish surprises for demand, such as a breakthrough in trade talks, could turn the market round quickly. This is especially so given the 27% increase in speculative short positions since the end of July to a record high level, which sets the stage for potentially aggressive short-covering rallies.