Research

Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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Base Metals

03 September 2019 Issue

  • Consolidation continues after recent rebounds, sentiment improved for now

    Free

    06 September 2019

    What difference a few days makes, with base metals and broader, non-haven, markets looking considerably more upbeat recently, with copper prices on Thursday September 5 reaching levels last seen in early August - that after just two-days of gains. That said, the metals are consolidating this morning.

  • LME base metals prices consolidate Wednesday’s solid gains, brighter outlook bodes well

    Free

    05 September 2019

    The markets have been under steady pressure for so long that the combination of good news about Hong Kong, with the withdrawal of the extradition bill, and reports that high level US-China trade talks will resume in October, have been enough to lead a relief rally.

  • Nickel, tin prices adjusting while other metals take cheer from reduced stress over Hong Kong

    Free

    04 September 2019

    While lack of progress on US-China trade talks remains ever present, the potential removal of the logjam over Hong Kong seems to be providing some cheer across markets on the morning of Wednesday, September 4.

  • Aluminium: Trying to rebound from new low

    03 September 2019

    The LME aluminium price registered a fresh 2019 low on Thursday last week at $1,734 per tonne. But dip buying has emerged and we think the selling momentum since the August 19 high of $1,807 per tonne has run its course. Technical risks to aluminium prices, at least in the short term, now lie to the upside.

  • Base metals investment analysis: Copper the likely next target of strong short-covering wave

    03 September 2019

    Being short copper has become, in our view, an overcrowded trade, thereby raising the likelihood of a strong wave of short-covering in near term.

  • Copper: Positive demand signals from China

    03 September 2019

    Copper prices remain depressed by very weak Chinese investor sentiment. Apart from the macro, fundamentals of the refined copper market, most notably on the Chinese demand side, have improved notably since July. As we expect the market tightness to become increasingly visible into year-end, we believe that a solid short-covering rally in copper prices should occur sooner rather than later. Seasonality is friendly in September.

  • Demand Indicators: 3 September 2019

    03 September 2019

    Demand indicators for the base metals market

  • Downloadable Base Metals Weekly Data September 3 2019

    03 September 2019

    Downloadable data for week September 3 2019

  • Lead: Turned back by $2,100/t resistance yet again

    03 September 2019

    For the third time since late-July, lead prices having got above $2,100 per tonne have run into enough selling to turn them lower. Given the US-China trade war has escalated further with the US increasing tariffs on imports from China, it is not surprising that lead’s rally ran out of steam, although talk of China stimulating the auto industry could start to help demand..

  • Market Summary: Awaiting fresh developments

    03 September 2019

    Aside from markets affected by immediate supply concerns, namely nickel, the other base metals are in general still drifting as they wait for further US-China trade developments.

  • Nickel: Q3 forecast raised, Q4 unchanged for now

    03 September 2019

    With the third up-leg in nickel’s Indonesia-driven summer rally, the average LME cash price for Q3 to date has risen to $14,547 per tonne, which is above even our high-case scenario for the period, which was $14,000 per tonne. Until a month ago there was no sign that the Indonesian government was even considering expediting the reintroduction of the ore export ban. Our new base case forecast for Q3 is $15,005 per tonne (from $13,580 per tonne) and assumes the rally is already near its peak, as the second up-leg from late July had already largely discounted the ban being brought forward.

  • Technical analysis: Sellers mostly still in charge

    03 September 2019

    With the exception of strong rallies in nickel and tin in recent days, the other base metals continue to edge lower with sellers remaining in charge.

  • Tin: Taken by surprise

    03 September 2019

    After months of weak performance, the LME tin price enjoyed its strongest rally since November 2016 on Friday last week. The move could have been attributed to positive spillover effects from nickel’s Indonesia-fuelled super rally. But we believe that tin prices are still likely to continue to strengthen into the year-end, due to an increasingly tight fundamental picture. The 2019 low could already be behind us.

  • Zinc: Still capped by macro uncertainties

    03 September 2019

    Zinc prices are attempting to form a base above $2,200 per tonne at the start of this week. But, for the moment at least, broader macro concerns remain the dominant force shaping sentiment despite persistent tightness in the refined zinc market and the prospect of stronger stimulus measures from China, particularly for the automotive sector, potentially providing a fresh boost to demand.