Research

Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

Change font size:   

Base Metals

9 July 2019 Issue

  • Prices on divergent paths while participants digest Chinese data

    Free

    15 July 2019

    China’s economic growth slowed to 6.2% in Q2, which was in line with expectations and well within Beijing’s target of 6-6.5% for 2019, while other Chinese data out earlier this morning showed activity in June was considerably stronger. But LME three-month base metals prices have been unimpressed, giving a mixed start to a new trading week so far.

  • LME base metals prices mixed as healthy China trade surplus could unsettle trade talks

    Free

    12 July 2019

    Nickel and copper have been the highlights within the base metals complex, enjoying strong spells in recent days. But overall the group's performance is mixed as macro and geopolitical uncertainties linger and haven assets remain more in demand overall than risky assets.

  • LME base metals prices mostly consolidate as macro headwinds persist

    Free

    11 July 2019

    Although US interest rate cut expectations encouraged the LME three-month base metals prices to move higher yesterday, with the notable exception of nickel they have started to weaken in early trading today, Thursday July 11.

  • Aluminium: Technically bullish, fundamentally bearish

    09 July 2019

    Healthy speculative short-covering lately and the improved technical configuration suggests there could be more upside for aluminium prices in the near term. But with seasonally slower demand, rising supply and a lower average alumina price in H2, the fundamentals are not conducive in our opinion.

  • Base metals investment analysis: Mixed picture, but generally not too bullish

    09 July 2019

    The base metals are either testing lows of rebounding off them. In the case of the rebounders, it is too early to say whether these moves are anything more than corrections within ongoing downtrends.

  • Copper: Maintaining our bullish H2 outlook

    09 July 2019

    While copper prices have started Q3 on a relatively weak note amid a stronger dollar, we think that Chinese demand for the metal is due to increase in the months ahead, coinciding with supply conditions becoming increasingly tight. As this should underpin a further drawdown in domestic and global copper inventories, we believe that the downside from current spot price levels is limited. Although an escalation of the US-China trade dispute remains an omnipresent risk, we hold that the 2019 price low is behind us.

  • Demand Indicators: July 9 2019

    09 July 2019

    Demand indicators for the base metals market

  • Downloadable Base Metals Weekly Data July 9 2019

    09 July 2019

    Downloadable data for week July 9 2019

  • Lead: Latest price downturn may not last long

    09 July 2019

    While lead has been one of the more robust metals since mid-June, with prices rising to $1,944.50 per tonne from $1,773.50, they did start to weaken last week. But this could just be part of a healthy technical pull-back after the recent gains. An inverse head-and-shoulders pattern may be forming on the charts and, if triggered, could see $2,100 per tonne targeted in the near term.

  • Market Summary: More of the same

    09 July 2019

    Weak economic data continues to weigh on sentiment and it appears to have dawned on the market that even though US-China trade talks have resumed, any trade deal may still be a long way off. Range-trading continues.

  • Nickel: Cautiously bullish

    09 July 2019

    Nickel prices are looking strong again this week, approaching the July 1 high of $12,850 per tonne. But we would be wary about getting too bullish, too soon. If this rebound attempt falls short, it would put another ‘lower high’ in the series that goes back to early March, which would be bearish by confirming that the dominant trend overall remains the four month long down-sloping channel.

  • Technical analysis: Mixed picture, but generally not too bullish

    09 July 2019

    The base metals are either testing lows of rebounding off them. In the case of the rebounders, it is too early to say whether these moves are anything more than corrections within ongoing downtrends.

  • Tin: Sell-off a buying opportunity

    09 July 2019

    The LME tin price tumbled to its lowest since July 2016 last week, which took most market participants by surprise. Our analysis shows that the violent sell-off was technical in nature, rather than underpinned by a negative change in fundamental dynamics. Although we downgraded slightly our Q3 base-case forecast, we are still firmly constructive on tin prices in the near term and through H2.

  • Zinc: Potential bear trap in the making

    09 July 2019

    Sentiment towards zinc remains extremely weak at the start of H2. But ongoing restraint among Chinese smelters is maintaining structural tightness, at least for the time being, while fresh warrant cancellations and easier spreads could see exchange stocks depleted again from already-low levels. If availability does start to re-tighten, zinc risks becoming a bear trap given recent positioning trends, particularly with liquidity set to thin during the summer.