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Free
09 April 2019
Base metals prices are generally subdued this morning and volumes low. As US-China trade talks seem to be grinding towards a positive conclusion, tensions are escalating between the US and EU over additional tariffs, and this could ignite fresh uncertainty and increase downside risks to the global economy.
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Free
08 April 2019
Progress in US-China trade negotiations over the weekend helped support global risk sentiment and push up LME base metals prices in early morning trading on Monday April 8. However, we wonder how much upside can be left in this story as
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Free
05 April 2019
For the most part the base metals are holding up well and seem to be waiting for direction from a US-China trade deal. With German industrial production data turning positive and with that following the turn up in Chinese PMI data earlier in the week, perhaps there is room for optimism.
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Free
03 April 2019
LME base metals prices were firmer during morning trading on Wednesday April 2, up by an average of 0.4%. Further evidence of a recovery in China's economy seems to be providing support.
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02 April 2019
Aluminium prices have again struggled to produce a convincing run higher and sellers remain in control overall. We believe that rally attempts will continue to be sold into given the headwinds of rising Chinese and Russian supply and concerns over the demand outlook. Our Q2 base case price forecast remains unchanged for now at $1,930 per tonne.
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02 April 2019
The latest LME COT report provides insights into speculative positioning in the week to March 22. Speculative sentiment was mixed with net positioning in copper and lead fractionally slipping below neutral to join aluminium in running net short positions again, while the others remained net long.
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02 April 2019
Copper came under pressure in March because market participants became impatient with the lack of improvement in both global economic growth (especially in China) and the fundamentals of the refined copper market. Because we expect macro dynamics to improve and copper’s fundamentals to tighten in Q2, we see copper prices moving higher in the coming months.
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02 April 2019
Demand indicators for the base metals market
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02 April 2019
Downloadable data for week April 2 2019
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02 April 2019
Lead prices remain under pressure, retesting the support area above $2,000 per tonne that was established in Q4 last year. Attempts to rally are still running into overhead selling. For the time being at least, lead has even shrugged off the better-than-expected Chinese PMI data released over the weekend, a sign that the lead market is not in a hurry to get bullish again.
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02 April 2019
Better-than-expected PMI data for March has boosted sentiment across the base metals in recent days. But, once again, rallies were generally pared back. This suggests buyers are in no hurry to restock or get long to any great extent, especially while a US-China trade deal has not emerged yet. We still expect a positive trade deal will be the trigger for stronger metal prices because it will remove one big uncertainty that has been overhanging the market for a long time.
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02 April 2019
Even though LME nickel stock outflows picked up in March, prices seems to have abandoned their 2019 uptrend and moved into a sideways trading range around $13,000 per tonne. This coincides with our current base-case price forecast for Q2. The focus of our analysis this week is recent demand developments, after the publication of our monthly Stainless Steel Market Tracker on Friday and an important policy adjustment on China’s EV subsidies announced last Tuesday.
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02 April 2019
April got off to a strong start, but initial gains were lost during Monday, suggesting bulls’ fresh momentum was quickly stamped out as sellers retook control. It looks like consolidation again in the short term.
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02 April 2019
Tin prices have remained resilient despite the announcement of the end of a suspension of key smelter inspector PT Surveyor Indonesia on March 4. While continuing tight refined market conditions have prevented tin prices from selling off, we still expect supply to loosen at the start of Q2, which could exert downward pressure on tin prices. But we would see this as a buying opportunity given the tight long-term fundamental picture.
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02 April 2019
Zinc closed Q1 with an 18.7% gain in LME prices, available LME stocks at 28-year lows, the nearby backwardation flaring again and spot TCs still on the rise. Against this backdrop we have promoted our Q2 high case forecast of $2,950 per tonne to our new Q2 base case, and have a new high case scenario of $3,200 per tonne.