Research

Forecasts and market analysis based on price assessments from Fastmarkets MB and Fastmarkets AMM

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Base Metals

2 April 2019 Issue

  • Slow start to trading as metal prices wait for further clarity

    Free

    09 April 2019

    Base metals prices are generally subdued this morning and volumes low. As US-China trade talks seem to be grinding towards a positive conclusion, tensions are escalating between the US and EU over additional tariffs, and this could ignite fresh uncertainty and increase downside risks to the global economy.

  • Metal prices enjoy follow-through buying on positive sentiment

    Free

    08 April 2019

    Progress in US-China trade negotiations over the weekend helped support global risk sentiment and push up LME base metals prices in early morning trading on Monday April 8. However, we wonder how much upside can be left in this story as

  • Slow start to trading with China on holiday; all eyes on Cu stocks, US employment report

    Free

    05 April 2019

    For the most part the base metals are holding up well and seem to be waiting for direction from a US-China trade deal. With German industrial production data turning positive and with that following the turn up in Chinese PMI data earlier in the week, perhaps there is room for optimism.

  • Metals prices buoyant this morning on further evidence of uptick in China's economic activity

    Free

    03 April 2019

    LME base metals prices were firmer during morning trading on Wednesday April 2, up by an average of 0.4%. Further evidence of a recovery in China's economy seems to be providing support.

  • Aluminium: Still selling the rallies

    02 April 2019

    Aluminium prices have again struggled to produce a convincing run higher and sellers remain in control overall. We believe that rally attempts will continue to be sold into given the headwinds of rising Chinese and Russian supply and concerns over the demand outlook. Our Q2 base case price forecast remains unchanged for now at $1,930 per tonne.

  • Base metals investment analysis: Cu and Pb joined Al as net spec shorts again in late March

    02 April 2019

    The latest LME COT report provides insights into speculative positioning in the week to March 22. Speculative sentiment was mixed with net positioning in copper and lead fractionally slipping below neutral to join aluminium in running net short positions again, while the others remained net long.

  • Copper: Stronger in Q2

    02 April 2019

    Copper came under pressure in March because market participants became impatient with the lack of improvement in both global economic growth (especially in China) and the fundamentals of the refined copper market. Because we expect macro dynamics to improve and copper’s fundamentals to tighten in Q2, we see copper prices moving higher in the coming months.

  • Demand Indicators: April 2 2019

    02 April 2019

    Demand indicators for the base metals market

  • Downloadable Base Metals Weekly Data April 2 2019

    02 April 2019

    Downloadable data for week April 2 2019

  • Lead: Still looking vulnerable

    02 April 2019

    Lead prices remain under pressure, retesting the support area above $2,000 per tonne that was established in Q4 last year. Attempts to rally are still running into overhead selling. For the time being at least, lead has even shrugged off the better-than-expected Chinese PMI data released over the weekend, a sign that the lead market is not in a hurry to get bullish again.

  • Market Summary: Still in ‘sell-the-rally’ mode until US-China trade deal is done

    02 April 2019

    Better-than-expected PMI data for March has boosted sentiment across the base metals in recent days. But, once again, rallies were generally pared back. This suggests buyers are in no hurry to restock or get long to any great extent, especially while a US-China trade deal has not emerged yet. We still expect a positive trade deal will be the trigger for stronger metal prices because it will remove one big uncertainty that has been overhanging the market for a long time.

  • Nickel: Demand cross-currents

    02 April 2019

    Even though LME nickel stock outflows picked up in March, prices seems to have abandoned their 2019 uptrend and moved into a sideways trading range around $13,000 per tonne. This coincides with our current base-case price forecast for Q2. The focus of our analysis this week is recent demand developments, after the publication of our monthly Stainless Steel Market Tracker on Friday and an important policy adjustment on China’s EV subsidies announced last Tuesday.

  • Technical analysis: Consolidation after rally attempts

    02 April 2019

    April got off to a strong start, but initial gains were lost during Monday, suggesting bulls’ fresh momentum was quickly stamped out as sellers retook control. It looks like consolidation again in the short term.

  • Tin: Weakness still likely to emerge

    02 April 2019

    Tin prices have remained resilient despite the announcement of the end of a suspension of key smelter inspector PT Surveyor Indonesia on March 4. While continuing tight refined market conditions have prevented tin prices from selling off, we still expect supply to loosen at the start of Q2, which could exert downward pressure on tin prices. But we would see this as a buying opportunity given the tight long-term fundamental picture.

  • Zinc: Price forecast upgraded

    02 April 2019

    Zinc closed Q1 with an 18.7% gain in LME prices, available LME stocks at 28-year lows, the nearby backwardation flaring again and spot TCs still on the rise. Against this backdrop we have promoted our Q2 high case forecast of $2,950 per tonne to our new Q2 base case, and have a new high case scenario of $3,200 per tonne.