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26 March 2019
Base metals had a mixed start to trading on Tuesday March 26. But that is an improvement on recent weaker trends, as risk sentiment across global financial markets appears to have picked up somewhat.
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25 March 2019
LME base metal prices ran into follow-through selling on the morning of Monday March 25 after weak economic data points released at the end of last week continued to undermine the demand outlook.
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22 March 2019
With LME base metals prices having come off their weekly highs, most have remained under selling pressure this morning, Friday March 22nd, compounded by a stronger US dollar. Overall, however, the base metals complex remains in consolidation mode.
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20 March 2019
Aluminium was the strongest LME metal this morning, setting fresh highs for the year. The others are generally consolidating. Overall, the complex seems to be waiting for fresh direction from US-China trade talks and for the most part are well placed to extend this year’s rallies. But that could mean they are also setting themselves up for a fall, should disappointing news emerge.
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19 March 2019
Aluminium has been the laggard of the base metals complex this year, but we wonder whether the risks are shifting to the upside. It has some catching up to do relative to its peers. We would look more to the technical picture than aluminium’s fundamentals to trigger that correction, with fund short-covering being the driver given how this market is unique in still carrying a net speculative short position. So there is potential for upside surprises for aluminium prices in the short term.
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19 March 2019
Base metal fund strategies are shifting due to diminishing volatility in copper’s outright price, and better visibility over market fundamentals ahead of an unpredictable macroeconomic environment.
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19 March 2019
Copper prices have consolidated somewhat since late February, with LME stock inflows and rewarrantings in the past week dampening further upside potential for the moment. While we see further consolidation into the month-end, we believe that a new uptrend will emerge in Q2 on the back of stronger copper demand from China. In this week’s analysis, we highlight the main takeaways from Fastmarkets’ International Copper Conference in Amsterdam, which we attended last week.
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19 March 2019
Demand indicators for the base metals market
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19 March 2019
Downloadable data for week March 19 2019
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19 March 2019
After reaching a seven month high at $2,179.50 per tonne on February 28, lead prices now around $2,030 per tonne look set to test technical support from the mid-February low at $2,011 per tonne. The main change last week was the re-warranting of cancelled warrants, which sent the signal to the market that LME lead stocks are not about to accelerate lower anytime soon.
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19 March 2019
Base metals have generally had a strong run so far this year, on optimism about an improving macro outlook, and on low stocks and supply disruptions. However, this month the price recoveries are pausing, which is understandable given that current demand conditions remain subdued. We remain quite neutral on the complex at the moment until demand indicators start to improve.
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19 March 2019
Supported by steady LME stock outflows, nickel prices remain robust and may be completing a second ‘higher-low’ in the uptrend off the early-January bottom. The technical indicators should confirm this in the coming days. On the fundamentals, we have raised our Q1 Chinese production forecast, which, all other things being equal, has reduced the global annual deficit for 2019 by 21,000 tonnes to 63,000 tonnes.
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19 March 2019
From a technical perspective, base metal prices remain in consolidation mode, though nickel and potentially aluminium look best placed to break out of those holding patterns to the upside.
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19 March 2019
Tin has weakened the most among the base metals complex since the start of March, which is primarily because of the recent developments in Indonesia that are set to ease supply tightness in the next month or so. Our analysis suggests that the downside potential for tin prices is great over the next two months, yet, represents a buying opportunity because the long-term fundamental picture remains tight.
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19 March 2019
We have cut our outlook for Chinese refined zinc output in H1 as a result of the sharp drop in production in January-February. At the same time, the continued rise in SHFE stocks suggest demand has underwhelmed, and our H1 consumption forecast has been downgraded also. Nevertheless the net effect will be to delay the expected fundamental rebalancing, increasing our expectations for the full-year deficit in 2019 to 206,000 tonnes from ~150,000 tonnes previously.